Heading into the last games of Group F, there are a lot of question marks surrounding the possibilities of the results. Paraguay currently sits on top of the group with four points, while New Zealand is tied for second with Italy at two points. Even the tiebreakers can’t separate the two as they have an even goal differential and two goals each.
The group is wide open and any of the four teams have a chance to qualify and/or be eliminated. Paraguay has a chance to win the group with a victory over the Kiwis. A tie would also see them through to the knockout stage but it may not be enough to take first place. Italy takes on Slovakia who has only one point and will need some help to advance.
Essentially, it may be in the best interest of Paraguay to win the group, so there should be no reason for them to sit back and settle for a draw. Why? Well, if Paraguay settles for second place that could mean a tough battle against the Netherlands in the Round of 16. A victory would mean a first place finish and potentially an easier matchup with either Japan or Denmark.
New Zealand, on the other hand, does not have as much breathing room. A loss will obviously eliminate them regardless of the result of the other group game. A tie would jeopardize their chances as they would need a higher scoring draw than the Italy and Slovakia match as their only hope to advance. It may also come down to FIFA drawing to decide who finishes second, if all tiebreakers are level. Surely, no one wants to see it come down to that and New Zealand won’t have to worry about that if they upset the South Americans in their next match.
In reality, Paraguay cannot afford to take New Zealand lightly. They mustn’t look ahead to the knockout stage just yet. Remember, New Zealand avoided defeat in their opening game with a goal in stoppage time to even Slovakia at 1-1. Their second match saw them take an early lead over the defending World Cup champions before they conceded a penalty kick, which Italy converted to hang on for another 1-1 draw.
Paraguay’s journey has unfolded as some would expect from such a team. They were picked by many to advance along with the Azzurri, but not to win the group. They tied Italy 1-1 then dominated Slovakia en route to a 2-0 victory.
A key to this game will be Paraguay’s Roque Santa Cruz, who has claimed this Paraguay team to be the best the country has ever produced. A win would certainly help his case. Paraguay surprised many in the South American qualifiers and nearly finished 1st in qualifying ahead of Brazil.
Meanwhile, the All Whites have stayed alive in this tournament by playing a tight defensive game and have taken advantage of their breaks. Paraguay will likely be on the attack for most of the game, so the Kiwis will have to live off the counter-attack if they are to stand a chance against the talented South American players.
This World Cup has seen all of the South American teams looking impressive as all of the teams lead their groups. Paraguay has a chance tomorrow to create an easier route into the quarter-final, and New Zealand has a chance to shock the world and make it past the group stage. No one would have deemed it possible, but it is very likely right now, and Paraguay must be ready for their final test out of Group F.
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