Looking inside the outsiders’ market
Let’s play a game. Imagine you are the head of PR for last year’s Grand National. You need to discover a way to increase the popularity of the event for people outside the horse racing world.
Every campaign ranging from sponsorship to advertising has gone well but the numbers are not increasing to the level that your bosses require. You need inspiration from somewhere.
The National gets underway, you have done all you can but deep down you realise it’s not good enough. The job you worked so hard to get is slipping through your fingers. In two days time there is meeting scheduled to evaluate the results, you know all the blame for the lack of progress will be placed on you.
The race finishes, you couldn’t care less about the result – you have bigger fish to fry - but you glance up at the screen – 1st Mon Mome at 100-1. Your prayers have been answered. A massive outsider has won the National. You hear people talking around you about how incredible the result was – a man rushes past you celebrating, obviously due to the fact he had picked the winner. The buzz circulating around the National has returned. Your work here is done.
Thanks to Mon Mome’s surprise victory last year, the pin stickers or once a year punters, will be out in force this Saturday looking towards the triple-figure priced runners to boost their bank balance. I’ll say this quietly but history will not be on their side, only five 100-1 shots have won the National. However, the richest jumps race of the year has the knack of creating fairytales. So just in case the unthinkable happens, yours truly has picked his way through the form to find the value in the fiscal wilderness.
The best of a bad bunch looks to be the David Pipe trained Pablo Du Charmil, who is being laid out at 150-1 in some markets. Pipe’s record speaks for itself in the Grand National; in three years of training he has had nine runners. A runner-up in 2009 and one winner in 2008. Four runners will line up from Pipe’s yard this year, with his main hope being Comply Or Die, who was responsible for the aforementioned successes.
Pablo Du Charmil has only run once this season and fell when travelling well enough at Cheltenham in January. But that was his first run for seven months and a little bit of rustiness can be excused. This will be his first try over the National fences but has a highly underrated jockey onboard in Danny Cook, which may improve his jumping after it was found wanting at Cheltenham.
If you had backed all of Cook’s runners this season over fences with a £1 stake, you would be returning with a profit of £14.61. A win here on Saturday for Cook and that accumulation will sky rocket. Pablo Du Charmil goes in on a rating of 150, which looks as though he is well in the grip of the handicapper, but has shown signs of jumping ability over the past seasons, including an impressive fourth place in a handicap over three miles last season at Uttoxeter.
A return to that form should see him at least complete the circuit. Whether he can get his neck in front is another question – but he represents a slither of value.
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