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Geneva II: A summit without targets or deadlines

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What goals have the peace conference in Geneva II begins on Wednesday, despite the failed outburst invitation to Iran United Nations depends on which of the participants asked. The 40 governments and four international organizations will attend the Swiss town of Montreux morning even lack of a road map or some period specified. For the U.S. and its allies in Geneva II should pave the way for an inclusive transition in Syria. Saudi Arabia and the Arab League seeking ways to provide access to the moderate opposition to sponsoring. The régimem Bashar Assad arrives apparently convinced the summit will be a symposium of international terrorism in which his envoys speak of jihadists in Syria. And Russia simply wants to end the conflict, and if possible, to secure Assad in power.

What is clear is that the moderate opposition to recognizing western reaches extremely weak. Only agreed to go to Geneva II on Saturday, in a divided vote. The invitation of the Secretary General of the UN, Ban Ki Moon, Iran to acudiera also unnerved the summit leaders, again, threatened a stampede, which would have left Assad negotiating only with the world. Now, on Tuesday, the Syrian National Council, one of the key groups in the amalgam that is the opposition Syrian National Coalition, announced in a statement that their delegates will not be in Geneva. Their leader, George Sabra said in fact it is completely removed from the Coalition, for his refusal to go to Geneva this " accepting any condition imposed."

That vagueness has allowed for a fact that Geneva II are to be many guests sit and talk. From Saudi Arabia, which has secretly armed the opposition Syrian Rebel Army, Russia, which vetoed convictions in the Security Council of the UN against Assad 's government. A point was to sit even Iran, which has sent members of its Revolutionary Guard to train soldiers of Assad and participate in combat operations in Aleppo. Just invite the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, which has sent thousands of men to fight in Syria, it would have been more provocative in the face of an opposition that already goes weak and with many reservations, and figures present 130,000 dead and nine million displaced in less than three years of war. Under pressure from the U.S. and the negative Tehran to accept a political transition in Syria, the UN Secretary General last night withdrew the invitation to Iran, twelve hours after having extended.

Iran did not take it well. " It is clear that a complete solution to the Syrian problem will not be found if not all parties involved that influence the process," said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi Tuesday, according to official media. " Everyone knows that without Iran the possibility of a real solution in Syria are not very big," he added. The architect of Iran was the invitation to Moscow, as both are the main supporters of Assad on the international scene. After exclusion of Iran, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that " it is certainly a mistake, but not a disaster." He added that it is clear that " this whole story has not strengthened the authority of the UN."

If one were to include all those who have something to do on the ground in the bloody Syrian war would not only have to extend invitations to Iran and Hezbollah, but also the mosaic of jihadi militias, roughly grouped into larger brigades as the Front Nusra or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, fighting Assad and against moderate opponents. In just two weeks earlier this year, these struggles between rebels resulted in thousand casualties. Since then, and despite the UN briefly considered the idea of ​​extending an invitation to the Islamic Front, the less radical group of them, none of these Islamists have representation in Geneva, although theirs are crucial and localities as Raqqa, the only provincial capital completely beyond the control of Damascus.

 Tags: deadlines, Geneva, II, summit, targets

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